Strategic StudentFreshman On-Track Predictor
Two things at the end of 9th grade predict on-time graduation better than test scores or background characteristics: credits earned, and failures in core classes. Enter them and see where a freshman stands while there is still time to act. No PII. No login. Everything runs in your browser.
Enter the freshman year
No PIIFull-year credits by the end of 9th grade.
Usually five, your promotion rule may differ.
Semester Fs in English, math, science, or social studies. One or fewer stays on track.
On-time graduation, by freshman status
On-track students are roughly 3.5 times more likely to graduate on time. Approximate rates from University of Chicago Consortium research in Chicago Public Schools, shown for context, not a prediction about any one student.
What this means
How this works
The Freshman On-Track indicator comes from the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. A student is on track at the end of 9th grade when they have earned enough credits to be promoted to 10th grade (typically five full-year credits) and have no more than one semester F in a core course.
It is the strongest single early-warning indicator for graduation, predicting on-time graduation better than test scores, race, or poverty. On-track students graduate at far higher rates, and the indicator is actionable: credits and course grades can change with support during 9th grade.
Credit systems vary by school, so adjust the "credits to be on track" number to match your promotion rule. Source: UChicago Consortium, The On-Track Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation.
On-track is a starting point for support, never a label for a student. A freshman who is off-track in October can be back on track by June. That is the whole point of catching it early.